at this point i feel biden is toast. he tacked left, but the left can never be satisfied enough, is disloyal, and in spite of his concessions now has condemned him over gaza. "not pure enough!" (as if the other side was better... the orange turd moved the us embassy to jerusalem, cancelled the nuclear deal with iran, etc )
now on youtube etc im getting very puerile leftist ads about how great it is that biden stopped future lng gas exports... is that supposed to be a good thing? because the environment, greed, something? i thought europe needed the gas after breaking up with russia... but some 12 year old apparently says no. if i can find the video i'll link it
meanwhile here's how germans feel about it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SXy-M32kqg
japan also needs lng btw
on inflation, sinema and manchin, branded as traitors and hounded by the left, were right: excess fiscal stimulus breeds inflation. and so the inflation reduction act has been anything but. i can't imagine what it would have been with the full five trillion
industrial policy carries risks. it might work geopolitically, but there is an inherent economic inefficiency in manipulating markets, inefficiencies have costs, and consumers and businesses eventually pay for them. tariffs and subsidies may achieve certain strategic objectives but raise prices and increase deficits
the american worker is highly employed, but the american consumer keeps seeing high prices, particularly in housing and rental, which is usually the largest consumer expense (maybe from 25% to 70% of household budget depending on where you live and how much you make?). so even with full employment and higher wages coming in, workers are not feeling like they are prospering from the gains. of course in theory high employment and low prices tend to be mutually exclusive, which is why the federal reserve has a hard time finding the right balance, but good luck explaining that complexity to a crowd
here some figures:
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/f...rent-vs-income
https://www.census.gov/library/stori...e-on-rent.html
now as a result of fed policy the economy and employment are beginning to soften, just slightly, which should drive down prices, but the concern is that we might be heading towards stagflation, whereby the economy stagnates ("stag-") and employment goes down, but in spite of diminished consumption prices keep rising ("-flation"). jay powell laughed at the suggestion by a ft journalist in his press conference after the nfp data release (showing employment had contracted) because this is nothing like the 70s, but laugh or not the current data points at such a trend, if ever so slightly. so this is a real concern for forecasters, regardless of whether the fundamentals support the hypothesis or not
finally, to go back to the ira and fiscal stimulus, the deficit has ballooned to threatening levels, which are actually perfectly manageable at low interests. but the threat is that if interests were to rise (if inflation became a real problem, and interests would have to rise to curb it, or if us treasuries were not purchased by the world), then servicing the debt could quickly become unmanageable. kinda like the difference between a 30 year mortgage locked at 2% (cheap) and a maxed out 29.99% visa card (hell)
for an example of this see japan. japan has other problems (e.g. demographic), but they are between a rock and a hard place with their monetary policy, because if they keep interests low (0-0.1% currently) the yen keeps weakening (investments seek better returns elsewhere), but if they raise interests to make their currency more desirable their debt load will eat them
krugman said once that japan was proof that the deficit doesnt matter, but foreign currency exchanges say otherwise. japan depends on foreign energy and other imports, so a falling yen makes their cost of living higher: not just for consumers but for some businesses who import their inputs. (this even though a weak yen is goods for exports: but it's a matter of balance). so the bank of japan is on a warpath trying to prop up the falling yen right now (good luck with that). does the usa want to be on a similar footing, stuck with no choices? i think not
btw before i am branded a traitor (lmao) i will clarify to partisan ideologues that this is not an argument in favor of the orange turd. it's just a brief look at the current economic situation and why it hurts biden. me personally, i'm doing great, thanks, not really feeling the inflation (i see it but don't feel it, lucky i guess)
but for low income people, while unemployment remains low, rising food costs are hurting them, rental prices are strangling them, and house ownership with undersupply and relatively (but not really) high mortgage rates is further out of reach. so i can sense their discontent
turd wants to increase tariffs (inflationary) and cut taxes (fiscally irresponsible). but biden is also a tariff raiser! except he wants to tax "corporations" (berniespeak) which actually can reduce employment ("the job creators" in palinspeak). so the turd has a more hypnotizing approach about having your cake and eating it too. which is economic bullcaca, but this is america, where the poor think they are just temporarily embarrassed millionaires, not a social class in itself
of course the crowd is not capable of advanced reasoning or analysis, and the best hypnotizer wins, so here we are now, in the throes of populist fever from both sides. and with reason out of the window the best hypnotizer wins, unfortunately